The portfolio, forecast against actual
Budget against outturn across all eight contracts: the blended margin trajectory against the 22.0% target, the forecast final account, each contract's forecast-versus-actual position, and the variance drivers behind the shortfall.
- Client
- Meridian M&E Ltd · 8 contracts
- Portfolio
- £14.2m across the book
- Reference
- MER-FVA-P7
- Period
- April 2026 · Month 7
- Prepared by
- BuiltAI Intelligence Ltd
- Status
- Forecast snapshot
Illustrative example: fictional project and parties.
Actual margin of 21.4%, against a 22.0% target
Across the eight live contracts, the reported blended margin is 21.4% against the 22.0% portfolio target, a shortfall of 0.6 percentage points. The reported final account forecast is £14.08m against a current portfolio value of £14.2m. Four contracts sit below target. Contract weights and the forecast calculation are not supplied, so the rows do not establish each contract's contribution to the blended gap.
- Portfolio value
- £14.2m across 8 contracts
- Blended actual margin
- 21.4%
- Target margin
- 22.0%
- Margin variance
- −0.6pp, four contracts below target
- Forecast final account
- £14.08m
- Reporting period
- April 2026, Month 7
This is the Margin Cockpit's portfolio-level forecast versus actual margin (FvA): how outturn margin is tracking against target across the book. It is distinct from the contract-level final account positions (FAP) prepared in the Commercial Control Kit, which settle each contract's account line by line. The two reconcile, but answer different questions.
Every contract, forecast against actual
Each contract’s reported margin against a 22.0% target. Four are above target and four are below. The rows do not supply portfolio contribution weights.
| Contract | Target | Actual | Var (pp) | WIP (£k) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crestfield Phase 2CRES-2 | 22.0% | 23.2% | +1.2 | 102 | Above target |
| Whitmore TowerWHIT-T | 22.0% | 22.8% | +0.8 | 142 | Above target |
| Docklands Phase 2DOCK-2 | 22.0% | 22.4% | +0.4 | 96 | Above target |
| Northgate Cat-BNRTH-G | 22.0% | 22.1% | +0.1 | 118 | Above target |
| Bluewater TowerBLUE-T | 22.0% | 21.6% | −0.4 | 178 | Below target |
| Riverside FMRIVR-FM | 22.0% | 19.8% | −2.2 | 125 | Below target |
| Cathedral QuarterCATH-Q | 22.0% | 19.4% | −2.6 | 86 | Below target |
| Kingsferry CrossingMERS-G | 22.0% | 18.1% | −3.9 | 480 | Below target |
| Portfolio, 8 contracts | 22.0% | 21.4% | −0.6 | 1,327 | Blended |
Var is each contract's actual margin against the 22.0% target. WIP shown is against the eight named contracts (£1.33m). Total portfolio WIP, including central and unallocated items, is £1.84m against a £1.50m target; aged WIP over 60 days stands at £387k. These are distinct measures and are not summed together.
What is pulling the portfolio below target
Four contracts are at or above target and four are below. The cards show the three largest percentage-point shortfalls; Bluewater is also below target by 0.4 points. Without contract weights, neither the largest contribution to the reported 0.6-point blended gap nor its allocation can be established.
At 18.1%, Kingsferry Crossing is 3.9 points below target and holds £480k of work in progress, the largest named WIP position. These are review priorities, not a quantified ranking of contribution to portfolio margin or an assured recovery.
Crestfield Phase 2 (23.2%, +1.2pp), Whitmore Tower (22.8%, +0.8pp), Docklands Phase 2 and Northgate Cat-B are above 22.0%. Their contribution to the reported 21.4% blend cannot be recalculated from the unweighted rates alone.
The final account forecast, and the outturn range
The reported final account forecast is £14.08m against a current portfolio value of £14.2m. The 19.8%, 21.6% and 22.4% outturn figures below are illustrative scenarios, not recalculated weighted forecasts. Claim agreement, costs, valuation and billing conditions affect the outcome; no conversion or collection is guaranteed.
- Variation pipeline
- £482k: £139k agreed, £236k submitted, £107k in preparation
- Completed not invoiced
- £214k, subject to application requirements
- Invoice blockers
- £601k: the same £387k aged WIP plus £214k CNI, not additional exposure
- Total WIP
- £1.84m against a £1.50m target
- Aged WIP over 60 days
- £387k
Review Kingsferry Crossing and the three other below-target contracts. Progress each £482k pipeline stage separately, resolve evidence and application requirements within the £601k exposure, and monitor £387k aged WIP. Agreement, certification, billing and payment are separate steps; the actions do not guarantee movement toward 22.0% or a £14.2m final account.
Kingsferry's £480k WIP requires valuation and application review. A reduction in WIP is not itself cash collected or a measured net-margin improvement; the weighted scenario effect remains unquantified.
The £236k submitted variations remain subject to agreement; the £139k agreed and £107k in preparation are distinct stages. Update the reported 21.6% base case from approved evidence and costs, not an assumed full conversion.
Keep the illustrative outturn range separate from established account values. This example does not guarantee collection, a narrowing range or a net-margin benefit.