Forecast vs Actual Summary — Meridian M&E Ltd — April 2026

01

Summary

At the portfolio level, actual margin is running at 21.4% against a budget of 22.0% — a variance of −0.6 percentage points. This gap is narrower than last month (−1.2pp in March) thanks to the Whitmore Tower variation approval, but remains driven by two underperforming contracts.

Costs are running £184k over budget in aggregate. However, revenue is also £118k above forecast due to approved variations and favourable subcontract outturn, partially offsetting the cost overrun. The net margin shortfall is £66k — the gap between £118k of additional revenue recovery and £184k of cost overrun.

Forecast confidence varies significantly across the portfolio: four contracts are rated High (>80%), three are Medium (60–80%) and one — Riverside FM — is rated Low (48%) due to the combination of disputed deductions, rejected applications and uncertain volume trajectory.

02

Contract Forecast vs Actual 8 contracts

Contract	Revenue (£'000)			Cost (£'000)			Margin			Confidence
Contract	Budget	Actual	Var	Budget	Actual	Var	Budget %	Actual %	Var pp	Confidence
Whitmore TowerCBRE · Refurb	2,340	2,410	+70	1,825	1,802	−23	22.0%	25.2%	+3.2	92%
Docklands Phase 2Lendlease · Construction	3,760	3,800	+40	2,932	2,924	−8	22.0%	23.1%	+1.1	88%
Alderley ParkAstraZeneca · Lab Fit	1,180	1,200	+20	920	902	−18	22.0%	24.8%	+2.8	86%
Mersey GatewayPeel Group · Services	1,580	1,600	+20	1,232	1,242	+10	22.0%	22.4%	+0.4	82%
Cathedral QuarterISG · Fitout	2,100	2,100	—	1,638	1,694	+56	22.0%	19.4%	−2.6	68%
Pennine Pkg CKier · Works Pkg	1,380	1,400	+20	1,076	1,138	+62	22.0%	18.7%	−3.3	66%
Trafford RetailMace · Refit	700	710	+10	546	574	+28	22.0%	19.2%	−2.8	62%
Riverside FMMitie · FM Yr 2	1,020	980	−40	796	834	+38	22.0%	14.8%	−7.2	48%
Portfolio	14,060	14,200	+140	10,965	11,110	+145	22.0%	21.4%	−0.6	74%

03

Variance Analysis

Revenue variance — +£140k above forecast

Whitmore Tower — asbestos variation approved

+£70k

Docklands Ph 2 — additional measured works

+£40k

Other contracts — minor variation approvals

+£70k

Riverside FM — volume below contract cap

−£40k

Revenue upside is primarily variation-driven. Riverside FM is the only contract tracking below its revenue forecast — reactive call volumes are 12% below the contracted cap, reducing the revenue base.

Cost variance — +£145k over budget

Pennine Pkg C — labour + material overrun

+£62k

Cathedral Quarter — prelim overrun (programme slip)

+£56k

Riverside FM — SLA deductions + additional resource

+£38k

Trafford Retail — night shift + welfare ext.

+£28k

3 contracts — subcontract savings offset

−£39k

Cost overruns are concentrated in four contracts. Pennine and Cathedral are programme-related (addressable through recovery claims). Riverside and Trafford include one-off costs not expected to recur.

04

Forecast Confidence Assessment

High confidence · >80%

4 contracts — Whitmore Tower (92%), Docklands (88%), Alderley Park (86%), Mersey Gateway (82%). These contracts have stable cost profiles, approved variations and predictable remaining programmes. Forecast-at-completion is expected to be within ±2% of current position.

£9.0m

63% of portfolio value

Medium confidence · 60–80%

3 contracts — Cathedral Quarter (68%), Pennine Pkg C (66%), Trafford Retail (62%). These have active cost pressures (prelim overrun, labour reallocation) with partial mitigation through variation claims. Outturn could swing ±4% depending on claim outcomes and programme recovery.

£4.2m

30% of portfolio value

Low confidence · <60%

1 contract — Riverside FM (48%). Multiple compounding uncertainties: disputed deductions (£28k), rejected applications (£212k WIP + CNI), below-cap reactive volumes, and an unresolved counter-claim. Outturn could swing ±8pp depending on dispute resolution and volume trajectory.

£1.0m

7% of portfolio value

05

Forecast at Completion — Scenarios

Three scenarios for portfolio outturn based on different assumptions about claim recovery, cost control and dispute resolution.

Downside

19.8%

Claims lost, costs continue

Margin £ = £1,126k

Base case

21.6%

Current trajectory + pipeline

Margin £ = £1,298k

Upside

22.4%

Claims recovered, costs controlled

Margin £ = £1,382k

Key swing factors: Mersey Gateway re-measure claim (£31k, deadline 15 May), Riverside FM dispute resolution (£28k, 6–8 weeks), Cathedral Quarter time claim (£8k, under review), and whether Pennine Pkg C variation (£18k) is approved. In the base case, 70% of submitted pipeline converts at the rolling average recovery rate of 82%.